The Outstater

March 10, 2026

A Mamdani for Indianapolis

DIFFERENTATION is not allowed in the corporate newsroom. That is, all individuals and groups are to be treated equal in their motivation and character (except conservatives, who are racist and evil). This softens intra-office relationships but makes predicting the twists and turns of politics difficult. 

So it is unsurprising that nobody is asking this simple question: In Indianapolis, could a candidate in the mold of Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani be elected within the next couple of cycles?

Well, considering the political savvy, discipline and energy of the Indiana GOP, the answer would seem to be an easy yes. Plus, there are a dozen large mosques in Indianapolis, all of them capable of functioning as political staging areas. And Rep. Andre Carson already has done the ground work in his 7th District. An endorsement from Beau Bayh could be expected.

But there’s more to it than that. Here are some back-of-the envelope calculations from my assistant, Grok, working on the assumption that a muslim would have an out-of-state  fundraising edge in a coalition with local blacks and hispanics:

Such a hypothetical coalition represents about 40 percent of the city’s population (accounting for minimal overlap). Voting-age population (VAP) is roughly 75-80 percent of total population, so this coalition could include 250,000-300,000 potential adult voters. However:

• Not all are U.S. citizens or registered (e.g., lower citizenship rates among hispanics reduce eligible voters by 20-40 percent).
• Historical turnout in primaries is low, even among these groups.
• Registered voters in Marion County: 650,000 as of 2024, with similar numbers expected in 2027.

But if this coalition fully mobilized — registering at high rates (80 percent), choosing the Democratic ballot, turning out at above-average levels (e.g., 20 percent versus the typical 10-15 percent), and voting unanimously for one candidate — it could generate 40,000-50,000 votes. That’s enough to win a primary outright, given the 2023 benchmark where 28,000 votes secured victory.

And they don’t have to take Grok’s word for it. A team of political reporters could put an equation together in a week using original sources. To get things started, here are the factors:

Initial muslim population = 
Growth rate = 
VAP ratio = 
Registration rate = 
Turnout rate = 
Bloc voting rate = 
Winning threshold =

My bet, though, is that nobody will want any part of this story; it would rile the voter base horribly. The very prospect would require differentiating (there’s that word again) a muslim vote, of projecting what it might mean household by household given the ongoing experience of New York City. 

Democracy may or may not die in darkness, but it’s easier to manage there. — tcl

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