The Outstater

February 20, 2026

Reality Check: NFL Economics

BACK WHEN INDIANAPOLIS was selling its grandchildren to bring the Colts to town, an economist friend estimated that the contribution to the local economy would be equivalent to only three Walmarts. He was way off. When spread over 365 days, the daily economic “foot traffic” impact of an NFL stadium falls between that of a gas station convenience store and a single grocery store, not a big-box store.

How can that be? Well, a professional football team is a unique business. Its investment is in the salaries of celebrity athletes and coaches whose loyalty to the stadium locale is feigned at best. And the millions in residuals are from merchandise manufactured elsewhere. As is the money from television contracts deposited in distant banks.

That is according to economicaccountability.org. My assistant, Grok, has came up with some related talking points as we prepare to welcome the Bears to Hoosierland.

• An average NFL team attracts roughly 500,000 to 700,000 fans per season across 8–9 home games. This compares to the annual customer count of a single average American supermarket (around 600,000 to 725,000 customers per year).
• Grok could find no sources directly supporting my friend’s “three Walmarts” equivalence, whether measured by jobs, output, tax revenue or net growth. 
• Rather, the broad academic consensus finds that sports facilities have minimal or even negative net economic impact beyond displacing other local spending, with benefits often overstated in promotional studies.

Regarding that last point, in the case of the Bears moving to Hammond we can allow that much of the spending may be new spending, not merely displaced spending as when a Zionsville  family, say, goes to a Colts game instead of to Newfields. By comparison, there’s not much else going on in “Da Region” now and a good part of the fan base can be expected to be Chicagoans who otherwise would not be spending their money in Indiana.

So, all considered, the news is worthy of celebration. Indiana will prove to be an immensely more hospitable place than Mayor Brandon Johnson’s Chicago. And the move will cement our reputation as a premier sports state — not a bad thing.

But as the politicians line up to take credit and the talk turns to pumping $1 billion into a “public-private partnership” with millionaire owners of a sports franchise, we will want to keep government’s policy priorities straight.  

Begin by asking yourself whether fans of the Washington Commanders would rather take pride in their 5-12 record or in their city’s sewage-disposal system? — tcl

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