The Outstater

January 13, 2026

Graduation for Graduation’s Sake

SOMETHING STRUCK ME wrong about all the Indiana public school districts this week touting increases in their graduation rates. Shouldn’t we be worried about what is being graduated? 

Civic education, for instance. Gallup tell us that only 41 percent of those born after 1997 are proud to be an American compared with 83 percent of those born before 1946. The numbers on math and English learning aren’t more encouraging.

An economist friend explains that questioning such things is key to applying macro and micro economics correctly. We should be more careful how we understand the numbers.

There is a classic example from World War II. The U.S. military studied bullet holes on returning planes to decide where to add armor. The most damage appeared on the fuselage, so many thought it should be reinforced there.

Mathematician Abraham Wald pointed out a flaw in that logic: The data only showed surviving planes. Planes hit in the engine didn’t return at all. Reinforcement there saved many lives.

Good economics, then, isn’t just about numbers — it’s about questioning assumptions behind the numbers. That is especially true when the numbers come from a government institution. — tcl

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