The Outstater

November 15, 2025

Rodric’s Redistricting Guess

INDIANA SENATE PRO-TEM Rodric Bray and ex-governors Mike Pence and Mitch Daniels, in tacitly opposing a redistricting measure that would have improved the national party’s position going into the midterm elections, have made a two-part tactical calculation — a political guess, if you will.

The first part is that the Indiana supermajority is a reflection of grassroots GOP popularity. The second part is that opinion surveys accurately show redistricting to be unpopular. Republican values and principles have nothing to do with it; this is just power politics.

But there is another way of looking at it. To wit, the Republican supermajority is a result of Hoosier disdain for national Democrat politics, more MAGA than GOP.  Bray’s predecessor, for instance, could have lost his last re-election had there not been a pro-Trump wave of new Republican voters, largely undiscerning of local politics. 

As for polls discouraging redistricting, the topic is just too arcane for opinion surveys. Not one in 10 respondents could disassemble the issue meaningfully — just too many angles, twists and turns, both local and national. How many respondents, for instance, knew that the districts to be redistricted had been “packed” earlier by the Republican leadership to protect incumbents in adjacent districts?

Our guess is that the latter analysis will prove out in coming election cycles, and that the Pence-Daniels-Bray calculation will be seen as disastrous for Republican incumbents. Sen. Liz Brown of Fort Wayne has it right in her statement today on Pro-Tempore Bray’s plan to kill redistricting:

“This is bad news for our conservative values. If Democrats take control of Congress, we will see impeachment hearings, woke ideology and higher taxes thrust upon Indiana and the rest of the country. Indiana will be blamed. And how cowardly that we couldn’t even take a vote. This is the time to stand up to Democrats who wish ill upon us, not cower to their demands.”   

“Pro Tempore,” you should know, is latin for “temporary.” — tcl

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