O’Donnell: In the Middle East There Are No Rules

October 13, 2024

by James O’Donnell, M.B.A.

 “Once upon a time . . . they lived happily ever after.”  We all know those words and likely have happy memories of reading them to our children or maybe recalling hearing them ourselves when we were young.

In fairy tales, things work out – “they lived happily ever after.” There are no wars, no genocides. Everybody makes up in the end, and we sleep tight.

Not so usually in the real world, where victory can be hard-fought and uncertain, if it is to be had at all. Especially in Israel, when glittering military success and incredibly ingenious intelligence destroys despicable enemies. Even then, that can’t budge the loathing of the West’s elite diplomatic establishment and chattering classes against Israel. Deep-seated reasons lie underneath this puzzle. Western foreign-policy makers desperately want to believe that we live in a stable, “rules-based” international order. These elites also believe that successful foreign policy in our enlightened era depends less on military strength and more on diplomacy. A kind of  “terminal diplomacy’’ I’d suggest, or maybe “kamikaze diplomacy” —  that respects the power of international law and scrupulous attention to human rights so much that real justice, and maybe survival, is sacrificed. However, the further reality-on-the-ground diverges from this fanciful illusion — “peace at any price” -— the more desperately many in the diplomatic and journalistic establishments cling to their dream.

Nowhere is this game of “make believe” more assiduously practiced than in the world of Middle East policy. In the real world, where most of us have to live, Iran is a malign and restless power whose fanatical ambition will respect only overwhelming power and force. The Palestinian people, on the other hand, whatever their historical rights and wrongs, lack the leadership, institutions and national consensus that could make a two-state solution work. Meanwhile, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, whatever else it does, enables and nourishes terrorism.

The international laws of war, whether we like them or not, have limited relevance in a region where the U.N. Charter itself is largely ignored. Finding real peace, in the sense that, say, Germany and France have real peace based on robust institutions and law, is not possible for Israel in dealing with many of its enemies.

These things are patently true. Nevertheless, well-educated, respectable, Western opinion refuses to accept any of them. In the West’s view, peace with Iran is just a couple of diplomatic meetings away. Some finely-turned phrases, handshakes, and smiles offered by someone with an Ivy League degree should do the trick. To be extra sure that the terminal diplomacy works its magic, pressure Israel for a few concessions. Then — Voila! Rules-based, democratic, regional order comes through like a charm.

Only the most blind, selfish, and politically immature of local leaders would dare block the otherwise inexorable march of utopia across the Middle East. But if none of this is true as yet. Even if Iran is closer than ever to having nuclear weapons, it will become true soon enough, if we close our eyes, clap our hands, and jump up and down for the tooth fairy.

Back in the balmy days of uncontested American supremacy following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West was strong enough that Middle Easterners were willing to indulge our illusions. But as the U.S. and to a much greater extent the European Union allowed their military power to erode we frittered away our diplomatic credibility. 

Rather than blaming themselves, however, for their declining influence over our friends and foes alike in the area, Western leaders and their adoring press lay the responsibility on those darn unenlightened locals. If Mr. Netanyahu were only as wise as John Kerry, many otherwise intelligent people passionately believe, Hamas would release the hostages, and a stable, peaceful Palestinian state would emerge in Gaza and the West Bank. Iran would eagerly make peace, too. Probably give up their pursuit of the bomb as well. And if Bibi could only be nudged out of power in Jerusalem, a wiser, better, and stronger leader would emerge. And then, peace, like a river, would flow down all across the Middle East.

Something new, too, has erupted. Since Oct. 7, 2023, we have seen upheavals on campuses and in city streets across Europe and North America. In part, these upheavals simply represent the normal impatience of unwise, unserious people, the ignorance of youth in this case, quick to act on strong perceptions and hungry for drama. In part, too, the upheaval represents the fruit of our foolish immigration policies, along with which comes the political emergence of defiant immigrant communities in Western countries. These immigrants bring with them views of Israel and Judaism profoundly at odds with what Americans have long accepted as normal. Many of these newcomers, including abundant illegals, emerge from, but also cling to, the ancient curse of Jew-hatred, a manifestation of befuddlement and hate that arises from societies in distress looking for scapegoats.

However, the stupid, arrogant, alienated rage of so many young people reflects something deeper and more troubling. A generation is awakening to the shocking realization that their elders — their parents and teachers — have sold them a bill of goods. The elders and the students, often at elite schools, have profoundly misjudged the nature of the world and the times in which we live. Two generations of Westerners have raised their children to believe that the world is, or is rapidly becoming, as a result of that aforementioned terminal diplomacy, a “safe space,” like some colleges try to create to shield young adults from being triggered or scared by the ideas of others.

Our situation calls for sterner stuff, however. These young people are going to have to make their own way through a world they don’t understand. Nor do they accept it. And for sure, they don’t take it on its terms. All of which spells problems for them — and us; they are neither intellectually, morally, nor emotionally prepared for the world as it is. They have been educated as would-be arbiters of social justice and emotionally coddled and conditioned to need total security to flourish. However, justice and security are both likely to be in short supply in the world “diplomacy-at any-cost” is likely to forge. The adjustment will be shocking for many, both painful and complex.

For the whole cadre of elites pushing for terminal diplomacy and the rules-based world, the last year has provided a tough lesson in the paradox at the heart of modern liberal statecraft. It turns out that the diplomacy through which liberal presidents seek to reshape the world depends greatly on perceived military prowess and the possibility of its use, if needed. Yet the Biden-Harris team want to ignore that reality. They just don’t do “rough.” As respect for America’s capacity, vision and will-to-project leadership erodes around the world, the power of America’s threats and promises steadily fades. Intellectual incoherence begets political impotence, and it is toward this unhappy port that Mr. Biden has drifted, taking our dear ship of state along with him.

While we go shopping. Curate our playlists. And try to boost our “likes” on Instagram.

James O’Donnell, M.B.A., is the retired, emeritus, Luke J. Peters Professor of Business and Economics and the Executive-in-Resident at Huntington University, Huntington. Before becoming a professor, he was an executive vice president at Fidelity Investments in Boston. O’Donnell is the author of numerous best-selling books in his business field, but also “Letters to Lizzie,” dedicated to his wife, who died in a long struggle with cancer. The two were the subjects of a feature-length article in the Wall Street Journal.



Comments...

Leave a Reply